Secrets of Poker
Casino Gambling
The house has a definite edge in every casino game (except against card-counters in blackjack); no betting system will break even in the long run, much less show a profit.
For any casino game, every betting system will eventually reflect the inherent casino advantage for that game; therefore, no betting system is any better, or any worse, than all other betting systems, although systems with large betting ranges may lose faster.
While it is true that the house has to continue to play indefinitely, and cover all bets within its stated minimum, and maximum, the player derives no advantage from the option of varying their bets, or quitting after a specific total win/loss, other than spreading their play over a longer period of time.
Since betting in every casino game has an edge for the house (except for the free-odds bets at craps), no combination of bets will show a profit for the player. It is impossible to combine a series of negative-expectation wagers and obtain a positive result.
Because the casino advantage works on every bet, you have the best chance of doubling your money if you put your entire stake on the first wager, and then quit. The greater the number of bets you make, the more certain you are to lose your stake, and the less chance you have of doubling it.
Law of Averages:
Much of the gambler's childlike faith in their latest "foolproof betting system" is brought about by a misunderstanding of the law of large numbers, misnamed the law of averages, and believed to mean that all things will eventually balance out, or "even up". For example, if you flip an unbiased coin long enough, an equal number of heads and tails is bound to appear.
In other words, if you flip a silver dollar 100 times, probability theory tells us that 95% of the time heads will appear between 45 and 55 times, 5 more or 5 less than the expected 50, or a 10% deviation. The same theory however, says that in 10,000 trials, 95% of the time, heads will show between 4,950 and 5,050 times, 50 more or 50 less than the expected 5,000, but only a 1% deviation. Furthermore, if you flip a million times, heads will turn up 500 more or 500 less than the expected half-million, or just one-tenth of 1% off.
It is important to understand that the longer you flip the coin, the greater the number of times you will vary from an even split, but the closer you will be percentage-wise. Remember that just the percentage difference tends to even up, and then only after a tremendous number of trials, while at the same time the fluctuations in outcome get larger and larger.
